Eliot Marshall vs Luke Fernandez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record6-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
TBDReach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamDante Rivera BJJ
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598
If they win+24→ 1636
If they lose-24→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1582 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Eliot MarshallLuke Fernandez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Fernandez70%
Eliot Marshall 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Fernandez a 70% favorite over Eliot Marshall in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Eliot Marshall's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1614 vs 1612), separated by just 2 points.
Eliot Marshall enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Eliot Marshall finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Luke Fernandez 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.