Elisha Ellison vs Gable Steveson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-3-0Record4-0-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'11"Height6'1"
78"Reach74"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
What's at stake
Gable Steveson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Elisha Ellison carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+29→ 1563
If they lose-19→ 1515
If they win+19→ 1624
If they lose-29→ 1576
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1509 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Elisha EllisonGable Steveson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gable Steveson54%
Elisha Ellison 46%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Gable Steveson a 54% favorite over Elisha Ellison in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Gable Steveson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1605 to 1534, a 71-point edge.
Elisha Ellison enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gable Steveson enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Elisha Ellison finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Gable Steveson 100%.
Elisha Ellison carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.