Combat Edge Intelligence

Elizeu Zaleski vs Zach Scroggin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-10-1Record7-1-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'3"
73"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight183 lbs
CM SystemTeamMarathon MMA

What's at stake

Elizeu Zaleski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Zach Scroggin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Elizeu ZaleskiNow 1699
If they win+9→ 1708
If they lose-15→ 1684
Zach ScrogginNow 1623
If they win+29→ 1652
If they lose-19→ 1604

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1687 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.26
Sig. strikes / min
2.40
42%
Strike accuracy
38%
3.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
8.80
56%
Strike defense
69%
0.75
Takedown avg.
0
21%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
69%
Takedown defense
0%
0.45
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Elizeu ZaleskiZach Scroggin
1500160017002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
3 (43%)
3 (12%)
Submission
2 (29%)
7 (28%)
Decision
2 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Elizeu Zaleski57%
Zach Scroggin 43%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Elizeu Zaleski a 57% favorite over Zach Scroggin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Elizeu Zaleski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1623, a 76-point edge.

Elizeu Zaleski enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Elizeu Zaleski finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Zach Scroggin 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.