Elves Brener vs Jason Saggo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-6-0Record13-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
72"Reach71,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamWulfrun MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
If they win+16→ 1697
If they lose-16→ 1665
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1647 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Elves BrenerJason Saggo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Elves Brener66%
Jason Saggo 34%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Elves Brener a 66% favorite over Jason Saggo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason Saggo's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1681), separated by just 5 points.
Elves Brener finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Jason Saggo 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.