Elvis Mutapcic vs Kevin Casey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-1Record9-6-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'11"
42,0"Reach77,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
RoundKick GymTeamBlack House
What's at stake
Elvis Mutapcic is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Kevin Casey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1626
If they lose-18→ 1594
If they win+18→ 1597
If they lose-14→ 1565
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Elvis MutapcicKevin Casey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Elvis Mutapcic66%
Kevin Casey 34%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Elvis Mutapcic a 66% favorite over Kevin Casey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Elvis Mutapcic holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1612 to 1579, a 33-point edge.
Elvis Mutapcic finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Casey 67%.
Elvis Mutapcic and Kevin Casey share 1 common opponent: Sam Alvey.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.