Emanuel Arzola vs Pedro Pena
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Emanuel Arzola57%
Pedro Pena 43%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Emanuel Arzola a 57% favorite over Pedro Pena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Emanuel Arzola holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1602 to 1560, a 42-point edge.
Emanuel Arzola enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Emanuel Arzola finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Pedro Pena 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
4-0-0Record10-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
-Reach-
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
Emanuel Arzola is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Pedro Pena carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1623
If they lose-27→ 1575
If they win+18→ 1578
If they lose-14→ 1546
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1523 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1492 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Emanuel ArzolaPedro Pena