Enrique Marin vs Niko Ceraglia
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Niko Ceraglia54%
Enrique Marin 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Niko Ceraglia a 54% favorite over Enrique Marin in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Enrique Marin's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1564 vs 1564), separated by just 0 points.
Enrique Marin enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Enrique Marin finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Niko Ceraglia 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
14-7-0Record4-1-0
WelterweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height6'0"
74,0"Reach-
159 lbsWeight145 lbs
Sutemi MMA· 1541 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamAurora MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 15 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1580
If they lose-16→ 1548
If they win+24→ 1588
If they lose-24→ 1540
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Enrique MarinNiko Ceraglia