Eric Nolan vs Matt Arroyo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-5-0Record3-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Lionheart Mixed Martial ArtsTeamGracie Tampa South
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1553
If they lose-16→ 1521
If they win+24→ 1562
If they lose-24→ 1514
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Eric NolanMatt Arroyo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Eric Nolan60%
Matt Arroyo 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Eric Nolan a 60% favorite over Matt Arroyo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matt Arroyo's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1537 vs 1538), separated by just 1 points.
Eric Nolan enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Eric Nolan finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Matt Arroyo 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.