Erick Silva vs Matt Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-11-0Record24-19-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamImmortal Fight Team
What's at stake
Matt Brown is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Erick Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1593
If they lose-14→ 1561
If they win+10→ 1634
If they lose-14→ 1610
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Erick SilvaMatt Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Brown51%
Erick Silva 49%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Brown a 51% favorite over Erick Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Matt Brown holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1624 to 1575, a 49-point edge.
Erick Silva enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Erick Silva finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Matt Brown 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.