Erivan Pereira vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-3-0Record23-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'2"
-Reach77"
172 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1746
If they lose-16→ 1714
If they win+16→ 1747
If they lose-16→ 1715
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1578 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1707 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Erivan PereiraJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez72%
Erivan Pereira 28%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 72% favorite over Erivan Pereira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1730 vs 1731), separated by just 1 points.
Erivan Pereira enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Erivan Pereira finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.