Ernest Chavez vs Michael Aswell Jr.
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record11-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'8"
TBDReach69"
146 lbsWeight145 lbs
Total MMA StudiosTeam4oz. Fight Club· 1653 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1647
If they lose-16→ 1615
If they win+16→ 1646
If they lose-16→ 1614
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ernest ChavezMichael Aswell Jr.
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Aswell Jr.63%
Ernest Chavez 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Aswell Jr. a 63% favorite over Ernest Chavez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ernest Chavez's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1631 vs 1630), separated by just 1 points.
Ernest Chavez enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Michael Aswell Jr. enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ernest Chavez finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Michael Aswell Jr. 55%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.