Combat Edge Intelligence

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Sofia Montenegro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-2-1Record6-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'5"
71"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fighters LandTeamAlfa Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ernesta KareckaiteNow 1582
If they win+24→ 1606
If they lose-24→ 1558
Sofia MontenegroNow 1587
If they win+24→ 1611
If they lose-24→ 1563

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1549 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.38
Sig. strikes / min
4.27
42%
Strike accuracy
40%
6.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.67
48%
Strike defense
49%
0.67
Takedown avg.
1
67%
Takedown accuracy
25%
83%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ernesta KareckaiteSofia Montenegro
15501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (33%)
KO/TKO
3 (50%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (17%)
4 (67%)
Decision
2 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Ernesta Kareckaite and Sofia Montenegro within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1582 vs 1587), separated by just 5 points.

Ernesta Kareckaite finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Sofia Montenegro 67%.

Ernesta Kareckaite carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.