Ernesta Kareckaite vs Sofia Montenegro
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-2-1Record6-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'5"
71"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
What's at stake
Ernesta Kareckaite is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Sofia Montenegro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1597
If they lose-17→ 1565
If they win+26→ 1584
If they lose-22→ 1536
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ernesta KareckaiteSofia Montenegro
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ernesta Kareckaite75%
Sofia Montenegro 25%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Ernesta Kareckaite a 75% favorite over Sofia Montenegro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Ernesta Kareckaite holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1582 to 1558, a 24-point edge.
Sofia Montenegro enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ernesta Kareckaite finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Sofia Montenegro 67%.
Ernesta Kareckaite carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.