Sofia Montenegro vs Ernesta Kareckaite

Feb 28, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

DateFeb 28, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueArena CDMX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, February 28, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 12:00 PM
Your time

Sofia MontenegroLa Bruja |6-3-0Sofia Montenegro vs Ernesta KareckaiteErnesta KareckaiteHeavy-Handed |6-2-1

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Ernesta Kareckaite owns a 24-point Elo edge (solid). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Sofia Montenegro and Ernesta Kareckaite across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Sofia MontenegroErnesta Kareckaite

Recent form

Sofia MontenegroL L W W W · +14 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Ernesta KareckaiteD L W L W · -3 Elo last 5

DLWLW

Elo edge

Sofia Montenegro1558-28 last move

Ernesta Kareckaite1582-1 last move

Why they are ranked here

Sofia Montenegro#81 of 108 active Women Strawweight fighters · 1558 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Paola Garay (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Gisela Luna (rated 1500 at the time): -35.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +14 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #80 Sara Vieitez, 2 ahead of #82 Jihin Radzuan.

Ernesta Kareckaite#49 of 80 active Women Flyweight fighters · 1582 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Tekle Iaganashvili (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Dione Barbosa (rated 1594 at the time): -25.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 2 losses, -3 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #48 Lisa Kyriacou, 2 ahead of #50 Ashley Thiner.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Sofia MontenegroNow 1558 · #81 Women Strawweight

Wins by decision+26→ 1584

Loses by decision-22→ 1536

Ernesta KareckaiteNow 1582 · #49 Women Flyweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1597

Loses by decision-17→ 1565

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Sofia MontenegrovsErnesta Kareckaite

Takedown accuracy

0%vs20%

Sig. strikes landed per min

4.27vs7.28

Takedown average

1vs0.75

Takedown defense

100%vs81%

Finishing profile

Sofia MontenegroKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Ernesta Kareckaitedecision leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Sofia MontenegroErnesta Kareckaite

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.27Sig. strikes landed per min7.28

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

40Sig. strike accuracy42

UFC flyweight average : 44%

5.67Sig. strikes absorbed per min6.47

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

49Sig. strike defense50

UFC flyweight average : 55%

1Takedown average0.75

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

0Takedown accuracy20

UFC flyweight average : 26%

100Takedown defense81

UFC flyweight average : 57%

0Submission average0

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

3Wins by knockout2

1Wins by submission0

2Wins by decision4

1Losses by knockout0

1Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision2

Sofia Montenegro vs Ernesta Kareckaite is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MORENO VS KAVANAGH. Sofia Montenegro enters with a 6-3-0 record and Ernesta Kareckaite enters with a 6-2-1 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.