Ernesto Rodriguez vs Rhys McKee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record15-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
73"Reach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamNext Generation Northern Ireland
What's at stake
Ernesto Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Rhys McKee carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1679
If they lose-17→ 1647
If they win+17→ 1664
If they lose-15→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ernesto RodriguezRhys McKee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rhys McKee65%
Ernesto Rodriguez 35%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Rhys McKee a 65% favorite over Ernesto Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ernesto Rodriguez's way (48%).
Ernesto Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1647, a 17-point edge.
Ernesto Rodriguez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Rhys McKee 93%.
Rhys McKee carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.