Ernesto Rodriguez vs Rhys McKee

Nov 14, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast59%Ernesto Rodriguez41%Rhys McKeeFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCoca-Cola Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Ernesto RodriguezStarboy |11-2-0Ernesto Rodriguez vs Rhys McKeeRhys McKeeSkeletor |15-7-1

Ernesto RodriguezStarboy11-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

11-2-0Record15-7-1

29Age31

5'9"Height6'1"

73"Reach78"

170 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Rhys McKeeSkeletor15-7-1

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Ernesto Rodriguez owns a 17-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Ernesto Rodriguez and Rhys McKee across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Ernesto RodriguezRhys McKee

Recent form

Ernesto RodriguezL W W W W · +42 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Rhys McKeeW L W L L · -13 Elo last 5

WLWLL

Elo edge

Ernesto Rodriguez1664-15 last move

Rhys McKee1647+17 last move

Why they are ranked here

Ernesto Rodriguez#113 of 332 active Welterweight fighters · 1664 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Kevin Crane (rated 1500 at the time): +23.
Costliest loss: Lost to Thad Jean (rated 1756 at the time): -15.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +42 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #112 David Kozma, 1 ahead of #114 Kenan Song.

Rhys McKee#18 of 73 active Catchweight fighters · 1647 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jim Wallhead (rated 1699 at the time): +23.
Costliest loss: Lost to Ange Loosa (rated 1592 at the time): -19.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -13 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #17 Bryce Meredith, 4 ahead of #19 Carlos Tardio.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

59%Ernesto Rodriguez41%Rhys McKee

Model favoriteErnesto Rodriguez

Elo baseline52% for Ernesto Rodriguez

Matchup adjustment+7 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Ernesto RodriguezStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Ernesto Rodriguez leads the full model at 59%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1664 · 1647Ernesto Rodriguez leads by 17 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1543 · 1644Rhys McKee faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth13 · 22 fightsRhys McKee has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Ernesto RodriguezNow 1664 · #113 Welterweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1679

Loses by decision-17→ 1647

Rhys McKeeNow 1647 · #18 Catchweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1664

Loses by decision-15→ 1632

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Ernesto RodriguezvsRhys McKee

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Ernesto Rodriguezdecision leads 64% of wins

Rhys McKeeKO/TKO leads 73% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Ernesto RodriguezRhys McKee

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per min4.71

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

Not availableSig. strike accuracy41

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per min7.15

UFC welterweight average : 3.86

Not availableSig. strike defense47

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown average0

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

Not availableTakedown accuracy0

UFC welterweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defense48

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission average0

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

3Wins by knockout11

1Wins by submission3

7Wins by decision1

2Losses by knockout3

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision4

Ernesto Rodriguez vs Rhys McKee is a scheduled Welterweight fight on PFL DUBAI : NEMKOV VS BILOSTENNIY. Ernesto Rodriguez enters with a 11-2-0 record and Rhys McKee enters with a 15-7-1 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.