Combat Edge Intelligence

Evan Dunham vs Herbert Burns

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-1Record11-6-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
70,0"Reach 73"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Evan Dunham is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Herbert Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Evan DunhamNow 1670
If they win+10→ 1680
If they lose-14→ 1656
Herbert BurnsNow 1614
If they win+19→ 1633
If they lose-13→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.33
Sig. strikes / min
1.86
39%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.17
62%
Strike defense
42%
1.82
Takedown avg.
2.94
33%
Takedown accuracy
35%
80%
Takedown defense
67%
0.98
Submission avg.
1.84

Trajectory

Evan DunhamHerbert Burns
1600165017002018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (17%)
KO/TKO
1 (9%)
6 (33%)
Submission
8 (73%)
9 (50%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Evan Dunham58%
Herbert Burns 42%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Evan Dunham a 58% favorite over Herbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Evan Dunham holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1614, a 56-point edge.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Herbert Burns enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Herbert Burns 82%.

Herbert Burns carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.