Evan Elder vs Tom Nolan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'2"
72"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nick Diaz AcademyTeamTeam Compton Training Centre
What's at stake
Tom Nolan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Evan Elder carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1669
If they lose-13→ 1637
If they win+13→ 1739
If they lose-19→ 1707
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Evan ElderTom Nolan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Nolan86%
Evan Elder 14%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Nolan a 86% favorite over Evan Elder in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Tom Nolan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1726 to 1650, a 76-point edge.
Evan Elder enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tom Nolan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Evan Elder finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Tom Nolan 55%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.