Tom Nolan vs Evan Elder

Sep 27, 2025 · ESPN+

DateSep 27, 2025

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueRAC Arena

BroadcastESPN+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 27, 2025 — watch on ESPN+.

US East (ET): Sat 10:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 7:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 3:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 4:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 12:00 PM
Your time

Tom NolanBig Train |11-1-0Tom Nolan vs Evan ElderEvan ElderThe Phenom |10-2-0

Tom NolanBig Train11-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

11-1-0Record10-2-0

26Age29

6'2"Height5'9"

73"Reach72"

155 lbsWeight155 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Evan ElderThe Phenom10-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Tom Nolan owns a 75-point Elo edge (good). Tom Nolan shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Tom Nolan and Evan Elder across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Tom NolanEvan Elder

Recent form

Tom NolanW W W W W · +110 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Evan ElderW W W L L · +4 Elo last 5

WWWLL

Elo edge

Tom Nolan1726+17 last move

Evan Elder1651+15 last move

Why they are ranked here

Tom Nolan#46 of 422 active Lightweight fighters · 1726 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Bogdan Grad (rated 1692 at the time): +35.
Costliest loss: Lost to Nikolas Motta (rated 1623 at the time): -31.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +110 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #45 Drakkar Klose, 2 ahead of #47 Chris Duncan.

Evan Elder#153 of 422 active Lightweight fighters · 1651 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Genaro Valdéz (rated 1604 at the time): +25.
Costliest loss: Lost to Nazim Sadykhov (rated 1641 at the time): -27.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +4 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #152 Ottman Azaitar, 0 ahead of #154 Jessin Ayari.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Tom NolanNow 1726 · #46 Lightweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1739

Loses by decision-19→ 1707

Evan ElderNow 1651 · #153 Lightweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1670

Loses by decision-13→ 1638

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Tom NolanvsEvan Elder

Submission average

1.86vs0.48

Takedown defense

71%vs40%

Takedown accuracy

22%vs15%

Takedown average

0.74vs0.48

Finishing profile

Tom NolanKO/TKO leads 45% of wins

Evan ElderKO/TKO leads 40% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Tom NolanEvan Elder

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

5.87Sig. strikes landed per min5.66

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

46Sig. strike accuracy51

UFC lightweight average : 46%

4.73Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.94

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

48Sig. strike defense57

UFC lightweight average : 53%

0.74Takedown average0.48

UFC lightweight average : 1.68

22Takedown accuracy15

UFC lightweight average : 28%

71Takedown defense40

UFC lightweight average : 59%

1.86Submission average0.48

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

5Wins by knockout4

1Wins by submission2

5Wins by decision4

1Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision1

Tom Nolan vs Evan Elder is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ULBERG VS REYES. Tom Nolan enters with a 11-1-0 record and Evan Elder enters with a 10-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.