Fabrizio Escarrega vs Johnny Case
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record30-10-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
-Reach72,5"
156 lbsWeight159 lbs
Victory Fight Club· 1683 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1624
If they win+12→ 1652
If they lose-12→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1507 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1617 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Fabrizio EscarregaJohnny Case
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Case62%
Fabrizio Escarrega 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Case a 62% favorite over Fabrizio Escarrega in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Fabrizio Escarrega's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1640), separated by just 0 points.
Fabrizio Escarrega finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Johnny Case 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.