Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabrizio Escarrega vs Johnny Case

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Johnny Case
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Johnny Case

“Hollywood”

30-10-1WelterweightRFF

1633Solid

Tale of the tape

9-2-0Record30-10-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
-Reach72,5"
156 lbsWeight159 lbs
Victory Fight Club· 1674 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fabrizio EscarregaNow 1633
If they win+16→ 1649
If they lose-16→ 1617
Johnny CaseNow 1633
If they win+12→ 1645
If they lose-12→ 1621

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1498 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.95
TBD
Strike accuracy
39%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.66
TBD
Strike defense
61%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.70
TBD
Takedown accuracy
45%
TBD
Takedown defense
73%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Fabrizio EscarregaJohnny Case
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (78%)
KO/TKO
21 (72%)
1 (11%)
Submission
4 (14%)
1 (11%)
Decision
4 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Fabrizio Escarrega and Johnny Case within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1633 vs 1633), separated by just 0 points.

Fabrizio Escarrega finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Johnny Case 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.