Felice Herrig vs Paige VanZant
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-10-0Record8-5-0
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'4"
65"Reach65"
115 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team CurranTeamGracie Barra Portland
What's at stake
Paige VanZant is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Felice Herrig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1573
If they lose-15→ 1541
If they win+15→ 1589
If they lose-17→ 1557
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Felice HerrigPaige VanZant
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paige VanZant70%
Felice Herrig 30%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Paige VanZant a 70% favorite over Felice Herrig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Paige VanZant holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1574 to 1556, a 18-point edge.
Felice Herrig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Felice Herrig finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Paige VanZant 63%.
Felice Herrig and Paige VanZant share 2 common opponents: Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Kailin Curran.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.