Combat Edge Intelligence

Felipe Arantes vs Josh Emmett

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-10-1Record19-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'6"
73,0"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

Josh Emmett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Felipe Arantes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Felipe ArantesNow 1545
If they win+17→ 1562
If they lose-7→ 1538
Josh EmmettNow 1712
If they win+7→ 1719
If they lose-17→ 1695

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1753 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.37
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
45%
Strike accuracy
36%
2.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.43
64%
Strike defense
60%
0.93
Takedown avg.
1.08
47%
Takedown accuracy
38%
41%
Takedown defense
44%
0.73
Submission avg.
0.07

Trajectory

Felipe ArantesJosh Emmett
1600170020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (39%)
KO/TKO
7 (37%)
6 (33%)
Submission
2 (11%)
5 (28%)
Decision
10 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Emmett78%
Felipe Arantes 22%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Emmett a 78% favorite over Felipe Arantes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Josh Emmett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1712 to 1545, a 167-point edge.

Felipe Arantes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Felipe Arantes finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Josh Emmett 47%.

Felipe Arantes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.