Combat Edge Intelligence

Felipe Bunes vs Rafael Estevam

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-9-0Record14-1-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
69"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight128 lbs
Pitbull BrothersTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Rafael Estevam is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Felipe Bunes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Felipe BunesNow 1555
If they win+23→ 1578
If they lose-9→ 1546
Rafael EstevamNow 1725
If they win+9→ 1734
If they lose-23→ 1702

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1588 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.93
Sig. strikes / min
2.10
51%
Strike accuracy
54%
4.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.59
45%
Strike defense
47%
1.13
Takedown avg.
6.01
22%
Takedown accuracy
39%
40%
Takedown defense
67%
2.26
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Felipe BunesRafael Estevam
15501600165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (15%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
9 (69%)
Submission
3 (21%)
2 (15%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Estevam92%
Felipe Bunes 8%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Estevam a 92% favorite over Felipe Bunes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Rafael Estevam holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1555, a 170-point edge.

Felipe Bunes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Felipe Bunes finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Estevam 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.