Felipe Bunes vs Rafael Estevam

Aug 2, 2025 · ESPN+

DateAug 2, 2025

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueUFC APEX

BroadcastESPN+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, August 2, 2025 — watch on ESPN+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Felipe BunesFelipinho |14-9-0Felipe Bunes vs Rafael EstevamRafael EstevamMacapa |14-1-0

Felipe BunesFelipinho14-9-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

14-9-0Record14-1-0

36Age30

5'7"Height5'8"

69"Reach69"

125 lbsWeight128 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Rafael EstevamMacapa14-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Rafael Estevam owns a 173-point Elo edge (good). Rafael Estevam shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Felipe Bunes and Rafael Estevam across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Felipe BunesRafael Estevam

Recent form

Felipe BunesL L W L W · +11 Elo last 5

LLWLW

Rafael EstevamL W W W W · +26 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Felipe Bunes1562-12 last move

Rafael Estevam1735-24 last move

Why they are ranked here

Felipe Bunes#144 of 195 active Flyweight fighters · 1562 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Mikael Silander (rated 1525 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Murad Magomedov (rated 1434 at the time): -33.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, +11 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #143 Zoran Milic, 2 ahead of #145 Yuma Horiuchi.

Rafael Estevam#29 of 316 active Bantamweight fighters · 1735 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Erick Visconde (rated 1619 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Ethyn Ewing (rated 1663 at the time): -24.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +26 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #28 Luciano Pereira, 2 ahead of #30 Kai Asakura.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Felipe BunesNow 1562 · #144 Flyweight

Wins by decision+23→ 1585

Loses by decision-9→ 1553

Rafael EstevamNow 1735 · #29 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+9→ 1744

Loses by decision-23→ 1712

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Felipe BunesvsRafael Estevam

Submission average

2.26vs0.29

Takedown average

1.13vs6.01

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

4.66vs2.59

Takedown accuracy

22%vs39%

Finishing profile

Felipe Bunessubmission leads 64% of wins

Rafael Estevamdecision leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

Zhalgas ZhumagulovFelipe Bunes: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Jun 17, 2023Rafael Estevam: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · May 6, 2023

Tale of the tape

Felipe BunesRafael Estevam

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.93Sig. strikes landed per min2.10

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

51Sig. strike accuracy54

UFC flyweight average : 44%

4.66Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.59

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

45Sig. strike defense47

UFC flyweight average : 55%

1.13Takedown average6.01

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

22Takedown accuracy39

UFC flyweight average : 26%

40Takedown defense67

UFC flyweight average : 57%

2.26Submission average0.29

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

2Wins by knockout4

9Wins by submission3

2Wins by decision7

1Losses by knockout1

2Losses by submission0

6Losses by decision0

Felipe Bunes vs Rafael Estevam is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : TAIRA VS PARK. Felipe Bunes enters with a 14-9-0 record and Rafael Estevam enters with a 14-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.