Felipe Froes vs Vener Galiev
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Felipe Froes54%
Vener Galiev 46%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Felipe Froes a 54% favorite over Vener Galiev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Vener Galiev's way (44%).
Vener Galiev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1668 to 1629, a 39-point edge.
Vener Galiev enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Felipe Froes finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Vener Galiev 66%.
Felipe Froes and Vener Galiev share 1 common opponent: Aurel Pîrtea.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
27-12-1Record38-15-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
-Reach-
158 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamRaty Team· 1674 avg Elo · 14 rated
What's at stake
Vener Galiev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Felipe Froes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1642
If they lose-11→ 1618
If they win+11→ 1679
If they lose-13→ 1655
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1589 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Felipe FroesVener Galiev
Win method breakdown
Common opponents (1)
LossDecision (Split) · 2023
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2024