Fernando Padilla vs Julian Erosa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record31-13-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'1"Height6'1"
76"Reach74"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team OyamaTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Julian Erosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Fernando Padilla carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1690
If they lose-15→ 1658
If they win+11→ 1706
If they lose-13→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fernando PadillaJulian Erosa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Julian Erosa51%
Fernando Padilla 49%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Julian Erosa a 51% favorite over Fernando Padilla in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Julian Erosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1673, a 22-point edge.
Julian Erosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Fernando Padilla finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Julian Erosa 84%.
Fernando Padilla carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.