Fernando Padilla vs Julian Erosa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record31-13-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'1"Height6'1"
76"Reach74"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Oyama· 1643 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Julian Erosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Fernando Padilla carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1692
If they lose-15→ 1660
If they win+11→ 1706
If they lose-13→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1590 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Fernando PadillaJulian Erosa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Julian Erosa59%
Fernando Padilla 41%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Julian Erosa a 59% favorite over Fernando Padilla in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Julian Erosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1675, a 20-point edge.
Julian Erosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Fernando Padilla finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Julian Erosa 84%.
Fernando Padilla carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.