Fernando Padilla vs Luis Pajuelo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record8-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'1"Height5'11"
76"Reach69,5"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamContacto Livre
What's at stake
Fernando Padilla is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Luis Pajuelo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1687
If they lose-18→ 1655
If they win+18→ 1650
If they lose-14→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fernando PadillaLuis Pajuelo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fernando Padilla60%
Luis Pajuelo 40%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Fernando Padilla a 60% favorite over Luis Pajuelo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Fernando Padilla holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1632, a 41-point edge.
Fernando Padilla finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Luis Pajuelo 88%.
Fernando Padilla carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.