Combat Edge Intelligence

Fernie Garcia vs Journey Newson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record10-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'5"
67"Reach67"
145 lbsWeight139 lbs
Fortis MMATeamImpact Jiu Jitsu

What's at stake

Journey Newson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Fernie Garcia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Fernie GarciaNow 1592
If they win+17→ 1609
If they lose-15→ 1577
Journey NewsonNow 1618
If they win+15→ 1633
If they lose-17→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.04
Sig. strikes / min
2.64
34%
Strike accuracy
33%
3.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
49%
Strike defense
65%
0.28
Takedown avg.
0.56
50%
Takedown accuracy
17%
50%
Takedown defense
44%
0.55
Submission avg.
0.28

Trajectory

Fernie GarciaJourney Newson
160016502021202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
3 (30%)
Submission
3 (30%)
6 (60%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Journey Newson51%
Fernie Garcia 49%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Journey Newson a 51% favorite over Fernie Garcia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Journey Newson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1618 to 1592, a 26-point edge.

Fernie Garcia enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Journey Newson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Fernie Garcia finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Journey Newson 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.