Combat Edge Intelligence

Fernie Garcia vs Kron Gracie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record5-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'9"
67"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Fortis MMATeamKron Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fernie GarciaNow 1592
If they win+16→ 1608
If they lose-16→ 1576
Kron GracieNow 1591
If they win+24→ 1615
If they lose-24→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.04
Sig. strikes / min
3.74
34%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.82
49%
Strike defense
53%
0.28
Takedown avg.
0.47
50%
Takedown accuracy
25%
50%
Takedown defense
0%
0.55
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Fernie GarciaKron Gracie
16001650202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
3 (30%)
Submission
5 (100%)
6 (60%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Fernie Garcia66%
Kron Gracie 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Fernie Garcia a 66% favorite over Kron Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1592 vs 1591), separated by just 1 points.

Fernie Garcia enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Kron Gracie enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Fernie Garcia finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Kron Gracie 100%.

Kron Gracie carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.