Forrest Griffin vs Rafael Tobias
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-7-0Record14-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
77"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamChute Boxe Monstro
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1674
If they lose-16→ 1642
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1711 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Forrest GriffinRafael Tobias
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Forrest Griffin64%
Rafael Tobias 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Forrest Griffin a 64% favorite over Rafael Tobias in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1658 vs 1657), separated by just 1 points.
Rafael Tobias enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Forrest Griffin finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.
Forrest Griffin carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.