Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolaños
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record9-5-0
LightweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
72"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight135 lbs
What's at stake
Francis Marshall is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Gaston Bolaños carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1668
If they lose-19→ 1636
If they win+19→ 1615
If they lose-13→ 1583
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Francis MarshallGaston Bolaños
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francis Marshall75%
Gaston Bolaños 25%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Francis Marshall a 75% favorite over Gaston Bolaños in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Francis Marshall holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1655 to 1596, a 59-point edge.
Francis Marshall enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Francis Marshall finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Gaston Bolaños 67%.
Francis Marshall carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.