Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolaños

DateOct 31, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 31, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Francis MarshallFire |10-3-0Francis Marshall vs Gaston BolañosGaston BolañosThe Dreamkiller |9-5-0

Francis MarshallFire10-3-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

10-3-0Record9-5-0

27Age34

5'9"Height5'7"

72"Reach69"

155 lbsWeight135 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Gaston BolañosThe Dreamkiller9-5-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Francis Marshall owns a 59-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Francis Marshall and Gaston Bolaños across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Francis MarshallGaston Bolaños

Recent form

Francis MarshallW W L W L · +16 Elo last 5

WWLWL

Gaston BolañosW L W L W · +29 Elo last 5

WLWLW

Elo edge

Francis Marshall1655+17 last move

Gaston Bolaños1596+19 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

73%Francis Marshall27%Gaston Bolaños

Model favoriteFrancis Marshall

Elo baseline58% for Francis Marshall

Matchup adjustment+15 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Francis MarshallStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Francis Marshall leads the full model at 73%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 15 points.

Current Elo ratings1655 · 1596Francis Marshall leads by 59 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1596 · 1562Francis Marshall faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth13 · 14 fightsGaston Bolaños has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesFrancis Marshall 2 · 2 Gaston BolañosStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Francis Marshall.

Stat advantages

Francis MarshallvsGaston Bolaños

Takedown average

2.86vs0.66

Submission average

0.61vs0

Takedown accuracy

45%vs100%

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

4.03vs2.40

Finishing profile

Francis Marshallsubmission leads 50% of wins

Gaston BolañosKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

Solo Hatley Jr.Francis Marshall: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · May 20, 2022Gaston Bolaños: loss · Decision (Split) · Feb 21, 2020

Tale of the tape

Francis MarshallGaston Bolaños

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.39Sig. strikes landed per min3.28

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

33Sig. strike accuracy49

UFC lightweight average : 46%

4.03Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.40

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

54Sig. strike defense51

UFC lightweight average : 53%

2.86Takedown average0.66

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

45Takedown accuracy100

UFC lightweight average : 29%

67Takedown defense43

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0.61Submission average0

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

1Wins by knockout6

5Wins by submission0

4Wins by decision3

1Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission3

2Losses by decision1

Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolaños is a scheduled Featherweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MOICANO VS NOLAN. Francis Marshall enters with a 10-3-0 record and Gaston Bolaños enters with a 9-5-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.