Francis Marshall vs Leonardo Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record18-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
72"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Pellegrino Mixed Martial ArtsTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1671
If they lose-16→ 1639
If they win+16→ 1672
If they lose-16→ 1640
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1597 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1658 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Francis MarshallLeonardo Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francis Marshall56%
Leonardo Santos 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Francis Marshall a 56% favorite over Leonardo Santos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Leonardo Santos's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1655 vs 1656), separated by just 1 points.
Francis Marshall enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Leonardo Santos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Francis Marshall finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Santos 71%.
Leonardo Santos carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.