Francis Marshall vs Lucas Brennan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record11-3-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
72"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight146 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+15→ 1670
If they lose-17→ 1638
If they win+17→ 1658
If they lose-15→ 1626
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1597 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Francis MarshallLucas Brennan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francis Marshall56%
Lucas Brennan 44%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Francis Marshall a 56% favorite over Lucas Brennan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1655 vs 1641), separated by just 14 points.
Francis Marshall enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Francis Marshall finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Brennan 91%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.