Combat Edge Intelligence

Francis Marshall vs Lucas Brennan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

10-3-0Record11-3-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
72"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight146 lbs
Pellegrino Mixed Martial ArtsTeamNext Generation MMA Frisco

What's at stake

Francis Marshall is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Lucas Brennan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Francis MarshallNow 1654
If they win+15→ 1669
If they lose-17→ 1637
Lucas BrennanNow 1639
If they win+17→ 1656
If they lose-15→ 1624

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.39
Sig. strikes / min
0
33%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
54%
Strike defense
TBD
2.86
Takedown avg.
TBD
45%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
67%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.61
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Francis MarshallLucas Brennan
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
5 (50%)
Submission
8 (73%)
4 (40%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Francis Marshall and Lucas Brennan within a point of even.

Francis Marshall holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1654 to 1639, a 15-point edge.

Francis Marshall enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Francis Marshall finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Brennan 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.