Francis Marshall vs Mairon Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record17-1-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
72"Reach 72"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Pellegrino Mixed Martial ArtsTeamParana Vale Tudo
What's at stake
Mairon Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Francis Marshall carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1675
If they lose-11→ 1643
If they win+11→ 1767
If they lose-21→ 1735
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francis MarshallMairon Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mairon Santos68%
Francis Marshall 32%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Mairon Santos a 68% favorite over Francis Marshall in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Mairon Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1756 to 1654, a 102-point edge.
Francis Marshall enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Mairon Santos enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Francis Marshall finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Mairon Santos 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.