Combat Edge Intelligence

Francis Marshall vs William Gomis

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-3-0Record15-4-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height6'0"
72"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Pellegrino Mixed Martial ArtsTeamMMA Factory

What's at stake

William Gomis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Francis Marshall carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Francis MarshallNow 1654
If they win+18→ 1672
If they lose-14→ 1640
William GomisNow 1707
If they win+14→ 1721
If they lose-18→ 1689

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1632 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.39
Sig. strikes / min
3.48
33%
Strike accuracy
50%
4.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.76
54%
Strike defense
61%
2.86
Takedown avg.
0.86
45%
Takedown accuracy
38%
67%
Takedown defense
72%
0.61
Submission avg.
0.34

Trajectory

Francis MarshallWilliam Gomis
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
5 (50%)
Submission
1 (7%)
4 (40%)
Decision
7 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Francis Marshall and William Gomis within a point of even.

William Gomis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1654, a 53-point edge.

Francis Marshall enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Francis Marshall finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, William Gomis 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.