Francisco Hernandez vs Ray Hayes
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Ray Hayes52%
Francisco Hernandez 48%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Ray Hayes a 52% favorite over Francisco Hernandez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Ray Hayes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1638 to 1617, a 21-point edge.
Francisco Hernandez enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ray Hayes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Francisco Hernandez finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Ray Hayes 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
6-2-0Record9-2-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
-Reach-
149 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Ray Hayes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Francisco Hernandez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1642
If they lose-23→ 1594
If they win+15→ 1653
If they lose-17→ 1621
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1496 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Francisco HernandezRay Hayes