Francisco Prado vs Jamie Mullarkey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record18-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
69"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
The Goat Shed Academy· 1671 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamBangtao Muay Thai & MMA
What's at stake
Francisco Prado is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jamie Mullarkey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1686
If they lose-18→ 1654
If they win+13→ 1644
If they lose-11→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Francisco PradoJamie Mullarkey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Prado82%
Jamie Mullarkey 18%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Prado a 82% favorite over Jamie Mullarkey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Francisco Prado holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1631, a 41-point edge.
Francisco Prado finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jamie Mullarkey 72%.
Jamie Mullarkey carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.