Francisco Prado vs Jamie Mullarkey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record18-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
69"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
The Goat Shed AcademyTeamBangtao Muay Thai & MMA
What's at stake
Francisco Prado is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jamie Mullarkey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1667
If they lose-17→ 1635
If they win+13→ 1644
If they lose-11→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francisco PradoJamie Mullarkey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Prado51%
Jamie Mullarkey 49%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Prado a 51% favorite over Jamie Mullarkey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Francisco Prado holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1652 to 1631, a 21-point edge.
Francisco Prado enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Francisco Prado finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jamie Mullarkey 72%.
Jamie Mullarkey carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.