Francisco Trinaldo vs Jai Herbert
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-9-0Record14-6-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'1"
70"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamRenegade Jiu Jitsu
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jai Herbert carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1775
If they lose-15→ 1751
If they win+20→ 1694
If they lose-12→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francisco TrinaldoJai Herbert
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jai Herbert53%
Francisco Trinaldo 47%Elo baseline: 37%
The Combat Edge model makes Jai Herbert a 53% favorite over Francisco Trinaldo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Francisco Trinaldo's way (37%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1674, a 92-point edge.
Francisco Trinaldo finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Jai Herbert 79%.
Jai Herbert carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.