Frank Lester vs Shane Mistretta
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-8-0Record5-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"HeightTBD
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1519
If they lose-16→ 1487
If they win+16→ 1520
If they lose-16→ 1488
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1495 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Frank LesterShane Mistretta
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Mistretta67%
Frank Lester 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Mistretta a 67% favorite over Frank Lester in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1503 vs 1504), separated by just 1 points.
Frank Lester finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Shane Mistretta 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.