Combat Edge Intelligence

Frankie Saenz vs Merab Dvalishvili

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record21-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
66,0"Reach 68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

Merab Dvalishvili is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Frankie Saenz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Frankie SaenzNow 1589
If they win+26→ 1615
If they lose-6→ 1583
Merab DvalishviliNow 1843
If they win+5→ 1848
If they lose-19→ 1824

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1788 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.94
Sig. strikes / min
4.42
47%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
52%
Strike defense
54%
1.74
Takedown avg.
5.97
32%
Takedown accuracy
5%
62%
Takedown defense
76%
0.12
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Frankie SaenzMerab Dvalishvili
16001700180020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
2 (17%)
Submission
2 (10%)
7 (58%)
Decision
16 (76%)

Combat Edge model read

Merab Dvalishvili92%
Frankie Saenz 8%Elo baseline: 81%

The Combat Edge model makes Merab Dvalishvili a 92% favorite over Frankie Saenz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).

Merab Dvalishvili holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1843 to 1589, a 254-point edge.

Frankie Saenz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Frankie Saenz finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Merab Dvalishvili 24%.

Merab Dvalishvili carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.