Combat Edge Intelligence

Frederick Brown vs Roggers Souza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

3-2-0Record15-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'4"
78,0"Reach79"
235 lbsWeight265 lbs
TeamAlcateia MMA

What's at stake

Roggers Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Frederick Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Frederick BrownNow 1514
If they win+25→ 1539
If they lose-23→ 1491
Roggers SouzaNow 1530
If they win+15→ 1545
If they lose-17→ 1513

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1502 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.38
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
47%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
0.72
Takedown avg.
TBD
39%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
70%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.64
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Frederick BrownRoggers Souza
1500155016002014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (100%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (27%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Roggers Souza59%
Frederick Brown 41%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Roggers Souza a 59% favorite over Frederick Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Roggers Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1530 to 1514, a 16-point edge.

Roggers Souza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Frederick Brown finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Roggers Souza 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.