Gabe Green vs Ian Machado Garry
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record17-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'3"
73"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Subfighter MMATeamChute Boxe Diego Lima
What's at stake
Ian Machado Garry is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Gabe Green carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1683
If they lose-9→ 1651
If they win+9→ 1835
If they lose-23→ 1803
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1741 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabe GreenIan Machado Garry
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ian Machado Garry92%
Gabe Green 8%Elo baseline: 72%
The Combat Edge model makes Ian Machado Garry a 92% favorite over Gabe Green in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).
Ian Machado Garry holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1826 to 1660, a 166-point edge.
Ian Machado Garry enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Gabe Green finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Ian Machado Garry 47%.
Gabe Green and Ian Machado Garry share 1 common opponent: Daniel Rodriguez.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.