Combat Edge Intelligence

Gabe Green vs Kauê Fernandes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Gabe Green
us

Gabe Green

“Gifted”

12-5-0WelterweightUFC

1660Good

Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record11-3-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
73"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Subfighter MMATeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gabe GreenNow 1660
If they win+16→ 1676
If they lose-16→ 1644
Kauê FernandesNow 1659
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-16→ 1643

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.28
Sig. strikes / min
0.41
45%
Strike accuracy
50%
6.95
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.70
47%
Strike defense
29%
0.83
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
54%
Takedown defense
0%
0.28
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Gabe GreenKauê Fernandes
16502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (33%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
7 (58%)
Submission
2 (18%)
1 (8%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Kauê Fernandes71%
Gabe Green 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kauê Fernandes a 71% favorite over Gabe Green in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gabe Green's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1660 vs 1659), separated by just 1 points.

Gabe Green finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Kauê Fernandes 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.