Gabriel Lourenço vs Thomas Petersen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-1-0Record11-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
76"Reach74"
265 lbsWeight257 lbs
Chute Boxe· 1702 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamSpartan MMA
What's at stake
Gabriel Lourenço is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Thomas Petersen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1686
If they lose-27→ 1638
If they win+18→ 1643
If they lose-14→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1511 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1629 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel LourençoThomas Petersen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thomas Petersen54%
Gabriel Lourenço 46%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 54% favorite over Gabriel Lourenço in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gabriel Lourenço's way (44%).
Gabriel Lourenço holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1665 to 1625, a 40-point edge.
Gabriel Lourenço enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Gabriel Lourenço finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.
Gabriel Lourenço carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.