Combat Edge Intelligence

Gabriella Fernandes vs Mariya Agapova

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record10-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
66"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
MMA MastersTeamMMA Science Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gabriella FernandesNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598
Mariya AgapovaNow 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1604 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.56
Sig. strikes / min
4.43
48%
Strike accuracy
55%
5.19
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.62
52%
Strike defense
52%
0.44
Takedown avg.
0.55
18%
Takedown accuracy
67%
69%
Takedown defense
45%
0.22
Submission avg.
0.83

Trajectory

Gabriella FernandesMariya Agapova
1600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (27%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
3 (27%)
Submission
5 (50%)
5 (45%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Gabriella Fernandes60%
Mariya Agapova 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Gabriella Fernandes a 60% favorite over Mariya Agapova in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1614 vs 1613), separated by just 1 points.

Mariya Agapova enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Gabriella Fernandes finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Mariya Agapova 80%.

Mariya Agapova carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.