Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record30-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
75"Reach73″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fortis MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Santiago Ponzinibbio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Geoff Neal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1709
If they lose-15→ 1677
If they win+11→ 1723
If they lose-13→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1721 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff NealSantiago Ponzinibbio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Neal66%
Santiago Ponzinibbio 34%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Neal a 66% favorite over Santiago Ponzinibbio in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Santiago Ponzinibbio's way (47%).
Santiago Ponzinibbio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1712 to 1692, a 20-point edge.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Geoff Neal finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Ponzinibbio 77%.
Geoff Neal and Santiago Ponzinibbio share 1 common opponent: Neil Magny.
Geoff Neal carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.