Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record30-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
75"Reach73″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fortis MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1709
If they lose-16→ 1677
If they win+12→ 1710
If they lose-12→ 1686
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1719 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff NealSantiago Ponzinibbio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Santiago Ponzinibbio60%
Geoff Neal 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Santiago Ponzinibbio a 60% favorite over Geoff Neal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1693 vs 1698), separated by just 5 points.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Santiago Ponzinibbio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Geoff Neal finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Ponzinibbio 77%.
Geoff Neal carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.