Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record19-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
75"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fortis MMATeamKazakhstan Top Team
What's at stake
Shavkat Rakhmonov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Geoff Neal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1715
If they lose-9→ 1683
If they win+9→ 1857
If they lose-23→ 1825
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1690 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff NealShavkat Rakhmonov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shavkat Rakhmonov84%
Geoff Neal 16%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Shavkat Rakhmonov a 84% favorite over Geoff Neal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Shavkat Rakhmonov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1848 to 1692, a 156-point edge.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Geoff Neal finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Shavkat Rakhmonov 95%.
Geoff Neal and Shavkat Rakhmonov share 3 common opponents: Ian Machado Garry, Neil Magny and Stephen Thompson.
Shavkat Rakhmonov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.