Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov

Mar 5, 2023 · ESPN+

DateMar 5, 2023

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueT-Mobile Arena

BroadcastESPN+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Sunday, March 5, 2023 — watch on ESPN+.

US East (ET): Sun 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sun 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Mon 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Mon 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Mon 1:00 PM
Your time

Geoff NealHandz of Steel |16-8-0Geoff Neal vs Shavkat RakhmonovShavkat RakhmonovNomad |19-0-0

Geoff NealHandz of Steel16-8-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

16-8-0Record19-0-0

36Age31

5'11"Height6'1"

75"Reach77"

170 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Shavkat RakhmonovNomad19-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Shavkat Rakhmonov owns a 162-point Elo edge (elite). Shavkat Rakhmonov shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Geoff Neal and Shavkat Rakhmonov across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Geoff NealShavkat Rakhmonov

Recent form

Geoff NealL L W L L · -46 Elo last 5

LLWLL

Shavkat RakhmonovW W W W W · +81 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Geoff Neal1693-21 last move

Shavkat Rakhmonov1855+15 last move

Why they are ranked here

Geoff Neal#79 of 356 active Welterweight fighters · 1693 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Rafael dos Anjos (rated 1728 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Uros Medic (rated 1687 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 1 win, 4 losses, -46 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #78 Punahele Soriano, 2 ahead of #80 Levan Chokheli.

Shavkat Rakhmonov#2 of 356 active Welterweight fighters · 1855 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Michel Prazeres (rated 1808 at the time): +22.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +81 Elo in total.
Next places: 87 points behind #1 Islam Makhachev, 3 ahead of #3 Michael Morales.
Inactivity: Placed on 1843, not 1855: 12 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Geoff NealNow 1693 · #79 Welterweight

Wins by decision+23→ 1716

Loses by decision-9→ 1684

Shavkat RakhmonovNow 1855 · #2 Welterweight

Wins by decision+9→ 1864

Loses by decision-23→ 1832

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Geoff NealvsShavkat Rakhmonov

Takedown accuracy

0%vs26%

Submission average

0.11vs1.20

Takedown average

0.54vs1.40

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

5.50vs2.17

Finishing profile

Geoff NealKO/TKO leads 63% of wins

Shavkat Rakhmonovsubmission leads 53% of wins

Common opponents

Ian Machado Garry Geoff Neal: loss · Decision (Split) · Feb 17, 2024 Shavkat Rakhmonov: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Dec 7, 2024

Belal Muhammad Geoff Neal: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Jan 19, 2019 Shavkat Rakhmonov: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Dec 7, 2024

Stephen Thompson Geoff Neal: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Dec 19, 2020 Shavkat Rakhmonov: win · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Dec 16, 2023

Tale of the tape

Geoff NealShavkat Rakhmonov

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

5.02Sig. strikes landed per min3.25

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

51Sig. strike accuracy60

UFC welterweight average : 46%

5.50Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.17

UFC welterweight average : 3.84

57Sig. strike defense51

UFC welterweight average : 53%

0.54Takedown average1.40

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

0Takedown accuracy26

UFC welterweight average : 30%

88Takedown defense86

UFC welterweight average : 59%

0.11Submission average1.20

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

10Wins by knockout8

2Wins by submission10

4Wins by decision1

3Losses by knockout0

2Losses by submission0

3Losses by decision0

Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov is a scheduled Welterweight fight on UFC 285 : JONES VS GANE. Geoff Neal enters with a 16-8-0 record and Shavkat Rakhmonov enters with a 19-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.