Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record14-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
75"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fortis MMATeamKings MMA· 1669 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Uros Medic is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Geoff Neal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1711
If they lose-14→ 1679
If they win+14→ 1743
If they lose-18→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff NealUros Medic
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Uros Medic71%
Geoff Neal 29%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Uros Medic a 71% favorite over Geoff Neal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Uros Medic holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1693, a 36-point edge.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Uros Medic enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Geoff Neal finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Uros Medic 100%.
Geoff Neal carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.