Gilbert Burns vs Jacobe Smith
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record13-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1758
If they lose-12→ 1734
If they win+16→ 1762
If they lose-16→ 1730
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1549 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert BurnsJacobe Smith
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jacobe Smith67%
Gilbert Burns 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jacobe Smith a 67% favorite over Gilbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gilbert Burns's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1746 vs 1746), separated by just 0 points.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jacobe Smith enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Jacobe Smith 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.